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2026

Climate Has Always Been Unstable

The error is not change, it's our inability to live with instability.

Climate

The idea of a "normal" climate is a recent construction. Paleoclimatology shows that Earth's climate has always been a dynamic system, oscillating between radically different states.

The myth of stability

Modern societies were built during a relatively stable interglacial period. This stability was taken as the norm. It is not. It is an exception.

Regime shifts

Climate does not change gradually. It shifts between regimes. When certain thresholds are crossed — ice coverage, ocean circulation, atmospheric composition — the system reconfigures rapidly.

The control illusion

The idea that we can "control" climate to keep it at 1.5°C or 2°C assumes a precision that complex systems do not allow. We can influence trajectories, not dictate precise outcomes.

Building for instability

Instead of trying to freeze a supposedly normal state, we should build societies capable of adapting to a range of climatic conditions. Flexibility rather than optimization for a single scenario.

Climate chaos will persist whatever the global targets. The question is not how to stop instability, but how to inhabit it.